Laboratory of modeling of socio-economic processes

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Laboratory	Laboratory of modeling of socio-economic processes
Phone	(+994 12) 539-27-76
E-mail	[email protected]
Head of laboratory	Hasanli Yadulla Khamdulla, Doctor of Economics, Professor
Number of employees	13
Main research areas	Economic and mathematical methods, including balance, optimization and econometric modeling.
Main scientific achievements	On the basis of the study of the problem of mutual debt, an economic-mathematical method for solving the problem (“credit incitement” and “failure incitement”) has been developed and its algorithms have been given. Introducing on the basis of the theory of J.M. Keynes the concept of the multiplier of debt cancellation and calculating its value on the example of the economy of Azerbaijan, comments have been made; By means of the reproduction scheme developed by Karl Marx, the dynamics of the economic development of countries rich in natural resources have been investigated and the characteristic features of their development have been determined. It has been substantiated that the tendency of unsustainable development of a country (financial crisis, etc.) is associated with the emergence of excess value or spare money as a result of the exploitation of natural resources; A macroeconometric model of the socio-economic development of Azerbaijan has been developed and a forecast of the country's main macroeconomic indicators has been given; An input-output model, a model of stable prices, a balance model of labor resources, a balance model of fixed assets of inter-industry relations of the national economy have been built and relevant simulations have been conducted; The patterns of distribution of the main indicators of taxpayers have been determined and tax evasion risks have been assessed; The impact of solar activity on the demographic and economic indicators of the country has been determined by the method of econometric modeling; Efficient algorithms for the repayment or forgiveness of intergovernmental mutual loans with account of bank interest rates have been developed, automated in the Delphi programming language, and the application software package has been created; The index of equilibrium prices of international debt has been developed. Depending on the obtained value of this indicator, it is possible to determine a balanced development of the state, levels of propensity for crisis in the real and financial sectors; Using the method of econometric modeling, it has been determined that an increase in the use of oil resources and oil prices leads to an increase in the amount of debt in the world, especially overdue external debt, which as a result stimulates the financial and economic crisis